The Update on The Magnet Industry 2024/12

Highlight of the Month   ◎ Jerry Yang, COO

As 2024 draws to a close, the rare earth mineral prices have failed to exhibit the usual year-end surge. Even after the market's expectations were dashed and prices declined gradually, they have since plateaued. With Europe and the United States entering their Christmas and New Year holidays, this phenomenon is not due to a resurgence of market demand but simply to suppliers reducing their low-ball offers, causing overall raw material trading to stagnate.

Summarizing the price fluctuations of rare earth minerals in 2024, the industry has been swinging between two emotions all year: a hope shrouded in uncertainty—hoping for a recovery amidst the sluggish end market; and a pervasive fear of regret—holding onto what is believed to be valuable raw materials, afraid of selling them too cheaply.In 2024, these two contrasting yet interconnected emotions of hope and fear have deeply entrenched themselves within Chinese companies and even the government. With the imminent return of Donald Trump as U.S. president, China's rare earth mining and magnet industries may face even more intense fluctuations in these emotions as they grapple with his tough but ambiguous threats.

Turning to our news segment, Australia, as the only surviving large-scale rare earth industry outside of China's dominance and before the US-China trade war, has naturally become a pioneer in de-sinicizing supply chains. Fully aware of the most vulnerable link in the supply chain – the separation and refining of rare earth minerals – Australia has been steadily building its foundation and technology in this area. Even if it cannot see results that would threaten the existing supply chain in the short term, Australia is still on the right track.

In an era when global warming is a universally acknowledged issue, even if Trump denies it, the green energy technology sector remains one of the most heated battlegrounds between the US and China. In 2024, China's government has strongly supported the development of the new energy vehicle industry, which has underpinned a large portion of the market for rare earth minerals and permanent magnets. At the same time, this has also fueled fears among Europe, the US, and several ASEAN countries about China's dumping of electric vehicles, as they worry that inaction could inflict irreparable damage on their domestic auto industries.To address this competitive and cooperative relationship, countries have developed two main response models: one is the optimization of motor design and related materials, and the other is the strengthening of supply chain resilience. These two approaches are complementary.

On the one hand, the optimization of design and materials no longer focuses solely on increasing the output of motors within a fixed volume or weight but also on maintaining or exceeding the performance of existing motors while using relatively fewer critical raw materials. Examples include KIMM's magnetic additive manufacturing technology and the development of Sm2Fe17N3 sintered magnets by NGK Spark Plug Company and the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), as mentioned in previous news.

On the other hand, the resilience, or independence, of the raw material supply chain can buffer the impact of market fluctuations or political factors, allowing the supply of downstream products to be more stable and less prone to disruptions. The US Department of Energy's investment in various states to secure critical raw materials is a planned and balanced effort to address this trend. Among these investments, the University of Utah's study on the geological relationship between coal and rare earth minerals is part of this US Department of Energy project. Its in-depth research on the association of rare earth minerals and coal seams may lead to the revival of old-time mining in the future due to the demand for new-age minerals.

On the opposite side of the spectrum is China's restriction on the export of drone components. This type of reciprocal attack tactic has become a familiar ploy since the US-China trade war began in 2018. While it is intended to disrupt global supply chains and constrain other forms of restraint, thereby providing bargaining chips at the negotiating table, it also serves as a driving force behind the aforementioned response models.

2024 has been a year of gradual recovery for countries following the pandemic, but various forms of warfare have shown no signs of abating. At the same time, the political systems that underpin the world's major economies have undergone numerous unexpected shocks this year. The only thing we can predict is that turmoil and chaos will no longer be occasional events but rather the global norm. Perhaps, amidst the turmoil, the only thing we can anchor ourselves to is the resilience to adapt. This is not the resilience of holding our ground and remaining unmoved, but rather the resilience required to keep moving forward under a heavy load, whether it be individuals, companies, industries, governments, or even large regional alliances.

At the end of this year, we wish fortitude and peace to all.

Our top five picks this month cover the latest global trends in magnetic materials.

#Australia#magnet#robot#motor#rare earth#drone

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